Peramalan Persediaan Beras Bulog di Kabupaten Manokwari Menggunakan Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
Abstract
Rice is one of the main components in the food sector which plays an important role in maintaining food supply stability. The main challenge in this case is maintaining Bulog's rice supply to remain stable. This research was conducted to support efforts to overcome food supply stability at Perum Bulog Manokwari by forecasting future Bulog rice supplies. The method used to predict Bulog's rice supply is the ARIMA model. From the application of the ARIMA method, the ARIMA(1,0,0) model was obtained with an accuracy level measured by an RMSE value of 107,908.4 and an error percentage of 15.71%. Forecasting Bulog's rice supplies using the ARIMA method is carried out for the next six month period, from January to June 2024.
Keywords: Forecasting; Bulog Rice; ARIMA
Abstrak
Beras merupakan salah satu komponen utama dalam sektor pangan yang memegang peranan penting dalam menjaga stabilitas pasokan pangan. Tantangan utama dalam hal ini adalah menjaga persediaan beras Bulog agar tetap stabil. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mendukung upaya dalam mengatasi stabilitas pasokan pangan di Perum Bulog Manokwari dengan melakukan peramalan terhadap persediaan beras bulog di masa mendatang. Metode yang digunakan dalam melakukan prediksi persediaan beras Bulog adalah Model ARIMA. Dari penerapan metode ARIMA, didapatkan model ARIMA(1,0,0) dengan tingkat akurasi yang diukur dari nilai RMSE sebesar 107.908,4 dan persentase kesalahan sebesar 15,71%. Peramalan persediaan beras Bulog menggunakan metode ARIMA dilakukan untuk periode enam bulan mendatang, mulai dari Januari hingga Juni 2024.
Keywords
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