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Analisis Jumlah Pelanggan dan Tingkat Produksi Listrik di Kota Salatiga Menggunakan Triple Exponential Smoothing

Dominus Alfin Tolanda(1*),Magdalena A. Ineke Pakereng(2)
(1) Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
(2) Universitas Kristen Satya Wacana
(*) Corresponding Author
DOI : 10.35889/jutisi.v13i2.1926

Abstract

Indonesia, amidst rapid economic growth, confronts challenges in meeting the escalating demand for electrical energy. Salatiga, located in Central Java and part of this dynamic landscape, experiences significant pressure on its electrical infrastructure due to substantial economic and population growth. The Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) methodology is adopted in this study to estimate future customer numbers and power production levels. The research results indicate that the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for the number of electricity customers is 4.64% < 10%, indicating that the forecasting is very accurate. For the electricity production level, the MAPE is 16.63%, which is considered good for forecasting. These outcomes can be utilized as a framework for making decisions regarding electricity in the city of Salatiga.

Kata kunci: Electricity Customers; Electricity Production Levels; Forecasting; Triple Exponential Smoothing

Abstrak

Indonesia, dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang pesat, menghadapi tantangan pemenuhan kebutuhan energi listrik yang terus meningkat. Kota Salatiga, Jawa Tengah, sebagai bagian dari dinamika ini, mengalami tekanan besar pada infrastruktur energi listrik akibat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan populasi yang signifikan. Penerapan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (TES) untuk menganalisis dan memprediksi jumlah pelanggan serta tingkat produksi listrik di masa depan. Temuan penelitian menyatakan didapatkan bahwa MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) untuk jumlah pelanggan listrik adalah 4,64% < 10% dimana hasilnya adalah permalan sudah sangat akurat dan untuk tingkat produksi listrik adalah 16,63% dimana hasil ini adalah baik untuk peramalan sehingga hal ini dapat menjadi panduan bagi pengambilan keputusan terkait energi listrik di Kota Salatiga.

 

Keywords


Pelanggan Listrik; Tingkat Produksi Listrik; Peramalan; Triple Exponential Smoothing

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