Prediksi Safety Stock Penjualan Produk Pakaian Berbasis Model DR-ARIMA (Studi Kasus: Veruby Store)
Abstract
Effective inventory management has become a crucial aspect in the fashion retail industry, especially in responding to fluctuating demand. This study aimed to predict safety stock needs using the DR-ARIMA (3,0,6) model, an enhancement of ARIMA that considers demand response and error analysis. Predictions were validated with Root Mean Square Error and used to establish lower and upper sales projection limits for safety stock calculation. The model demonstrated good accuracy for product categories with stable sales patterns such as tops, while showing limitations in categories with more volatile demand like bottoms. These findings highlight the imporantance of integrating trend analysis and customer behavior data to develop more adaptive and responsive stock management strategies amid market dynamics.
Key Words: Safety Stock; ARIMA; Demand Response; Fashion Retail
Abstrak
Pengelolaan persediaan yang efektif menjadi aspek penting dalam industri riteal fashion, terutama dalam menghadapi permintaan yang fluktuatif, penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi kebutuhan safety stock menggunakan model DR-ARIMA (3,0,6), yang merupakan pengembanagn dari ARIMA yang memperhitungkan respon permintaan dan analisis kesalahan. Hasil prediksi divalidasi dengan Root Mean Square Error dan digunakan untuk menentukan batas bawah dan atas proyeksi penjualan sebagai dasar penentuan safety stock. Model menunjukkan tingkat akurasi yang baik untuk kategori produk dengan pola penjualan stabil seperti atasan, namun memiliki keterbatasan dalam kategori dengan pola permintaan fluktuatif seperti bawahan. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya integrase analisis tren dan data perilaku pelanggan demi pengelolaan stok yang lebih adaptif dan responsif terhadap dinamika pasar.
Keywords
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